By, Issam Khoury
Oct 10, 2023
Saleh al-Arouri[1], the military leader of Hamas in Lebanon, known for his proximity to Hezbollah, specifically Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, may be one of the prominent names targeted by the Israelis if the military situation escalates on the northern front of this country, which is suffering from the ignition of a southern front that has led to the deaths of over 1,000 Israelis and 830 Palestinians in just three days, along with thousands of injuries on both sides and material losses that are difficult to quantify for both parties.
The Israeli shock from the attack of the Al-Qassam Brigades was significant. The Israelis believed that the highly fortified barrier was impenetrable, but the Palestinian militants managed to breach it and freely infiltrate Israeli settlements. Additionally, the Iron Dome system was unable to intercept the heavy rocket barrages launched by the Qassam Brigades. Glider aircraft were also used to breach the barrier in certain locations. Furthermore, Palestinian marches were able to throw explosives at the surveillance radars installed on the barrier, nullifying their effectiveness.
These developments pushed the Israeli military establishment to adopt two clear strategies:
The defensive strategy
The Israeli army relies on the following axes in it:
· Media mobilization
Since the moment of the attack by the Al-Qassam Brigades and Islamic Jihad in the morning hours of Oct 07, 2023, the Israelis have started posting horrifying videos targeting civilians in order to gain international sympathy. They have also published paid advertising videos on social media to illustrate the catastrophe that befell Israeli civilians.
· General mobilization
The army has announced a general mobilization system with the aim of recruiting 300,000 fighters.
· Declaration of war
This was ordered by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu without consulting the Knesset, and he requested the cooperation of the opposition in forming a state of emergency to protect the country. Of course, this plan has postponed the escalating political disagreements in Israel for several months in exchange for maintaining national security.
· Diplomatic communication
Several countries rushed to support Israel, most notably Germany, Italy, Austria, Britain, France, Ukraine, and the United States, which sent an aircraft carrier with the aim of preventing any intervention from Hezbollah and Iran in the war between the Gaza Strip and Israel.
· Evacuation of settlements
The Israeli army sought to evacuate all settlements adjacent to the Gaza Strip in a precautionary policy aimed at reducing casualties and allowing the army freedom of movement within those settlements.
The offensive strategy
This strategy relies on three axes:
The border control axis
This axis aims to eliminate any Palestinian fighters inside Israeli settlements, in conjunction with repairing the destroyed separation wall and intensifying military presence on the borders.
The Israelis have been able to deploy approximately 200,000 soldiers around the Gaza border.
The anger venting axis
The Israeli Air Force has escalated its bombing of residential areas in Gaza, leading to power and water shortages. This policy aims to frustrate the people of Gaza in response to Hamas’s actions. However, the Israeli army’s claim that the targeted buildings and facilities are solely Hamas headquarters is inaccurate. Tragically, many Palestinian civilians, including women and children, have been killed in these airstrikes. As a result, there has been an increase in solidarity among the Palestinians of Gaza and the organizations that attack Israel.
While this strategy may have unintended consequences, it fuels anger within Israel. This anger drives Netanyahu’s government to pursue higher Palestinian casualties, satisfying the desire for revenge among the Israeli population. Additionally, these airstrikes serve to disperse Palestinian forces, which contributes to the Israeli army’s acceleration in the initial phase (the border control axis) aiding the Israeli army’s progress in controlling the border.
The comprehensive attack axis
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant threatened through “Times of Israel” newspaper that (The Gaza Strip will never return as it was… We will have to change the reality from within Gaza to prevent it from happening again), as a clear indication that the response will be by land, air, and sea, leading to re-occupation of this sector and stripping the terrorist organizations listed from their weapons.
Both strategies align with a comprehensive security strategy that requires Israelis to update their security information about terrorist organizations that Israeli governments have tolerated in recent years. This has prompted them to enhance their military and security capabilities through coordination and training with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
For example, Hezbollah has evolved from a Lebanese local party to a regional party that deploys its fighters in Syria and Lebanon. It can easily ignite the Syrian Golan front by allowing Hamas fighters, trained by Saleh Arouri, to carry out operations from there, catching Israel off guard. Additionally, fighters from the Islamic Jihad movement, led by Ziyad Rashid al-Nakhaleh[2], who moves between Damascus and Lebanon, are prepared to carry out infiltration operations in the Galilee region.
The major dilemma is that fighters from radical Islamic organizations, whether Shia or Sunni, believe that the martyr’s place is paradise. Therefore, many jihadists will strive to engage in battles in order to achieve the honor of martyrdom.
The Palestinians are not the only adversaries of the Israelis, but also the various Shiite militias supported by Tehran. Hadi al-Amiri, the head of the Iraqi al-Fath Alliance, stated on October 9 (Our position is clear, and it is up to the Americans to understand clearly that if they interfere, we will interfere. If America intervenes in this battle, we will consider all American targets fair game and we will not hesitate to target them… They must stop supporting this Zionist entity)[3]. This statement came after a clear stance from the Popular Mobilization Forces on October 7, 2023, expressing their unconditional support for Palestinian factions fighting against Israel.
Of course, Al-Amiri and all the leaders of the Popular Mobilization Forces are Iranian tools in Iraq and Syria. Therefore, Al-Amiri’s statement was a response from Iran to Washington, after the White House called for Iran not to support Hamas. This clearly reflects the concern that Iran may push Hezbollah to ignite the northern Israeli front, especially after the Iranian president[4] endorsed Hamas’ invasion of Israel on October 8, 2023.
From here, we anticipate that the scope of attrition for the Israeli army will expand in the northern front, across the Syrian and Lebanese borders. We also expect limited infiltration operations aimed at draining Israeli intelligence and military capabilities in order to alleviate the pressure on the Gaza Strip.
The al-Assad regime is unable to deter Iran from using its borders. Furthermore, Russia is unwilling to let the Israeli issue settle with American guarantees, especially since the latter is working on the India-Saudi Arabia-Israel project, which would undermine Russian-Iranian-Chinese influence derived from the Silk Road project.
Therefore, it is likely that the Gaza war will continue for months, and for Israel to succeed in this complex issue, it needs to calm the northern front by creating chaos there. Perhaps Assad is the weakest link, and if he is removed from power, opposition groups will be able to encroach on neighboring territories. Hezbollah forces will be occupied defending their areas of influence in Syria, which are more important to Iran than Palestine. In this way, Israel ensures calm on the northern front, allowing it to focus on resolving its dilemma in Gaza.
[1] A member of Hamas since 1987, he led the Islamic student movement and helped establish Hamas’s military wing in the West Bank. He has been repeatedly detained by Israel, for long periods between 1985-1992, and 1992-2007. In 2010 he was deported by Israel to Syria where he lived for three years before moving to Turkey. He is currently based in Lebanon.
https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/saleh_al_arouri/
[2] Ziyad al-Nakhalah, The US Department of State designated PIJ as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 1997 and designated PIJ’s Secretary General Ziyad al-Nakhalah as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist in 2014.
https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/01/220540.htm
[3] SwissInfo/ Oct 10, 2023
https://www.swissinfo.ch/ara/reuters/%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%8A-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B2-%D9%8A%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%81-%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD-%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%A7-%D8%A5%D8%B0%D8%A7-%D8%AF%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%AA-%D8%A5%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84/48878174
[4] CNN Arabic, Oct 08, 2023
https://arabic.cnn.com/middle-east/article/2023/10/08/iran-supports-palestinian-iranian-president
Issam Khoury 